Left Behinds

The anti-andrewsullivan.com. Or, the Robin Hood (Maid Marian?) of bright pink Blogger blogs.

Monday, June 05, 2006

Poll in NY-11

Ben Smith directs us to this poll of the NY-11 race (PDF).


The poll was paid for by 1999SEIU. I don't know who they back in the 11th, if anyone. According to the Politicker, the Congressional Black Caucus also polled the race, with rather different results:

Yassky 28
Clarke 26
Andrews 13
Owens & Perry: single digits

Why the big difference? Well, Clarke's percentage seems pretty stable. And if you look at the internals of the first poll, Clarke's ID appears to be about 20 points higher than the others right now (probably because she ran last time). All other candidates' favorables and unfavorables are lower percentages than "can't say." Clarke is the only one to draw a definite opinion from more than half of those polled. So things are probably still very fluid, except that Clarke has a stable base of at least 25%. As Rock Hackshaw gloats, rightly, he wasn't as wrong as I (and many others) believed when he claimed the race is Clarke's to lose (though Rock conveniently forgets that he had Yassky a distant fourth).

The internals also show the racial divides seem to be what you'd expect: Yassky seems to be drawing almost all his support from white residents, while Clarke is running very strong among West Indians. At the same time, white voters overwhelmingly list the Iraq war as their top concern (at 45 percent), though Yassky, their favorite, seems to be the most hawkish of the candidates (he doesn't address Iraq, but he is the only one who favors confrontation with Iran, as a way of "Protecting Israel"). Color me shocked: whites support the white candidate despite his being ambiguous, at best, in agreeing with them on the issue they care about most.

Owens, interestingly, is doing about the same among black and white voters--even a little better among whites.


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