Left Behinds: Local Congressional updates

Friday, May 26, 2006

Local Congressional updates

Steve Harrison's website looks more credible than last time I surfed over there. But me notes that CQ rates the seat as "Safe Republican" even though Fossella won more narrowly than some of the incumbents in seats CQ rates as "Likely Republican."

Here are the NY seats, with the 2004 percentages (Rep/Dem):

No Favorite
NY24 - Boehlert (retiring)

Republican Favored
NY19 - Kelly (67/33)
NY20 - Sweeney (66/33)
NY23 - Walsh (91, no major dem opponent)
NY29 - Kuhl (50/41)

Safe Republican
NY03 - King (63/37)
NY13 - FOSSELLA (59/41)
NY23 - McHugh (71/29)
NY26 - Reynolds (56/44)

That's likely CQ's reflection on Harrison, to be honest. Sweeney has been making a big Blutarsky idiot of himself, Kelly will be opposed by rock-star-I've-never-heard-of John Hall, Kuhl will be opposed by blog darling Eric Massa, and Walsh will be opposed by blog darling Daniel Maffei in Syracuse, frankly a less Republican district than Staten Island.

Rock Hackshaw thinks Charles Barron will provide a strong primary challenge to Ed Towns. Of course, Hackshaw also thinks the NY-11 race is Yvette Clarke's to lose with David Yassky running a distant fourth, and as all of his commenters agree, that's just not...quite...right.

Tags: NY-13, NY-10, NY-11, Steve Harrison, Vito Fossella, Charles Barron, Ed Towns, Yvette Clarke, David Yassky, New York politics

3 Comments:

At 2:03 PM, Anonymous said…

Let's get some NY-19 facts strait:

The district is:
36.7% rep
32.3% dem
23.8% independent (no party affiliation)
7.2% other

Those are 1 month old numbers.

Kelly may or may not be against Hall come November. Hall is one person in a 6-way democratic primary race.

Hall isn't even leading in money raising, he is third behind Judy Aydelott and Ben Shuldiner.

There have been some county level endorsements recently too. Hall recieved one of them, two other counties endorsed two other candidates who are even further behind Hall in fundraising.

No one knows who will face Kelly in Nov. To see all of the candidates, click over to http://take19.blogspot.com
At 3:16 PM, Antid Oto said…

Fair enough. Thanks for the info. It's a bit far from home for me, so I don't know the district well at all. Hall was the only one I'd heard of probably because he's the only one that's gotten press here in the city, but I should know better than to think that means anything. I was mainly trying to take issue with the idea that NY-13 was a more likely pickup than the 19th, and your numbers seem to bear that out.
At 7:45 PM, Anonymous said…

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Friday, May 26, 2006

Local Congressional updates

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