Left Behinds

The anti-andrewsullivan.com. Or, the Robin Hood (Maid Marian?) of bright pink Blogger blogs.

Thursday, October 26, 2006


The stupidest article I've ever read predicting politics.

Our analysis -- based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance data -- suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight seats, to 224 of the chamber's 435. At the very worst, our analysis suggests, the party's loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat majority. But that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are predicting. In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with 52, down three

We studied every single race -- all 435 House seats and 33 in the Senate -- and based our predictions about the outcome in almost every race on which candidate had the largest campaign war chest, a sign of superior grass-roots support. We ignore the polls. Thus, our conclusions about individual races often differ from the conventional wisdom. Pollsters, for instance, have upstate New York Republican Rep. Tom Reynolds trailing Democratic challenger Jack Davis, who owns a manufacturing plant. But Reynolds raised $3.3 million in campaign contributions versus $1.6 million for Davis, so we score him the winner.

A large campaign war chest is a sign of superior grassroots support? Are you shitting me? This is just wilfully stupid.


  • At 3:11 AM, Blogger Solomon Grundy said…

    Surely they meant "We ignore the Poles."

    Or maybe "We ignore the pols."

    Either would make a lot more sense.

    And by a lot more I mean any sense at all.

  • At 10:28 AM, Blogger Coco Seven Mile said…

    Still, you've got to give them credit for a) using a clear yardstick, and b) making clear predictions. In two weeks we can either say "Those people are now proven to be idiots," or "Oops."

  • At 11:23 AM, Blogger Antid Oto said…

    No, Coco, they could get the prediction right and still be stupid. It's not that having a campaign war chest isn't important in the last couple of weeks--candidates with a lot more money do have a clear edge. It's the idea that having a lot of money = a lot of popular support that I just find offensively dumb.


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