If the Democrats do win this fall...

This is in part a contrarian thought experiment. I have read so many analyses of the fall’s congressional elections predicting gains for Democrats that I’ve begun to worry about what could go wrong.

Premise A: If Democrats win, they will not achieve a governing majority. It remains the case that gerrymandering has radically reduced the number of competitive seats, so even if Democrats win districts they are not supposed to, they will probably only get to a slight majority, not enough to pass any significant legislation.

Premise B: Democrats will have to promise a lot to get elected. In fact, the current CW dictates that Democrats must lay out a governing vision, and what I read tells me they plan to do so in August, with a book (sure to be gripping) by Rahm Emanuel.

Premise C: Things will suck as much or more in 2007 and 2008 as they do now.

Conclusion 1: If they achieve a narrow majority, Democrats will be in a position to be blamed for the country’s general suckiness and for failing to live up to their campaign promises, while being unable to make the kinds of drastic changes needed to address either.

Now, the one thing a bare majority in Congress does get you is control over committees, and especially the ability to hold hearings and subpoena witnesses. This does offer some opportunity to score political points.

But:

Premise D: The administration will stonewall any investigation from Congress into just about anything. For example, see the dismissive attitude revealed in the answers the Department of Justice gave to Democratic Senators’ questions about the NSA spying program.

Premise E: If Democratic Senators and Congressmen are often reluctant to rock the boat now (as revealed, for example, by their absurdly timorous reaction to Russ Feingold’s censure resolution), they will only be more so when they have more to lose—namely, the perks that come with even a narrow majority.

Premise F: Forcing answers from a stonewalling administration will require boat-rocking beyond simply delivering subpoenas.

Conclusion 2: Even if they control one or both Houses of Congress, Democrats will have a very hard time holding together even a bare majority to punish the administration for stonewalling investigations. This could have the effect of providing bipartisan sanction to Constitutionally indefensible programs, basically making Democrats complicit in a Constitutional crisis.

Tags: politics, Democrats, Election 2006